What Went Wrong With Kevin Costner’s Yellowstone Replacement & What Happens Now
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 was meant to be Kevin Costner’s replacement for the neo-Western series Yellowstone, but it has not quite panned out. The two-time Oscar-winning director and actor has long been associated with the Western genre, having appeared in projects including Wyatt Earp, Dances with Wolves, and Open Range, directing the latter two titles in addition to appearing in them. When he took on the role of John Dutton in the Taylor Sheridan show, he made his triumphant return to the genre.
The Kevin Costner Western proved to be quite popular, gathering an ever-growing audience that allowed the season 5 premiere to break the record for the most-watched series premiere of 2022 (as of that November) with 12.1 million viewers tuning in. The show has also spawned a variety of spinoffs, including the prequels 1883 and 1923, an upcoming sequel show, and more. However, Costner departed the series after appearing in season 5 part 1, and it was also announced that the upcoming part 2 will be the flagship show’s final episodes.
Kevin Costner’s Yellowstone Exit & How Horizon Was Supposed To Replace It
Costner Departed The Neo-Western Series Amid Backstage Drama
Kevin Costner’s Yellowstone exit came amid a flurry of rumors about a rift between the star and creator Taylor Sheridan. While the exact nature of those claims remains unclear, Costner himself told The Hollywood Reporter that the reason he left was that “After this long year and a half of working on Horizon… I just realized that I’m not going to be able to continue season 5B or into the future.” Thus, his new movie saga became positioned as more or less a direct replacement for the series, whether that was intentional or not.
Why Horizon Received Negative Reviews
The Kevin Costner Movie Has 46% On Rotten Tomatoes
Why Horizon Received Negative Reviews
The Kevin Costner Movie Has 46% On Rotten Tomatoes
While Costner’s status as a Western star seemed secure after Yellowstone, the Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 reviews put the first dent in the saga’s prospects after its Cannes premiere in May 2024. At the time of writing, the movie has a score of 46% aggregated from 114 critics’ reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. While audiences have ranked it higher with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes user score and a somewhat less grim B- CinemaScore, much criticism has been leveled against the project.
At the time of writing, more than 1,000 verified user ratings of Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 have been submitted to Rotten Tomatoes.
While many critics have expressed appreciation for Costner’s earnest approach to the material and the way the story builds as it goes along, it has drawn heavy criticism for its initial haphazard presentation of many scattered characters and storylines as well as its drawn-out run time, which clocks in at 3 hours and 1 minute. Many have also compared it to a smaller-scale television Western rather than the cinematic epic that was promised by the movie’s publicity campaign.
Why Horizon Chapter 1 Didn’t Perform Well At The Box Office
Many Factors Could Prevent The Movie From Breaking Even Theatrically
In addition to being a critical disappointment, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 has so far suffered at the box office. It opened at No. 3 with an $11 million weekend, which puts it on track to fall significantly short of its break-even point. The first two chapters of the intended four-part saga reportedly cost a whopping $100 million together. Presuming this indicates that Chapter 1 cost roughly $50 million, it likely means that the movie would need to earn at least $100 million worldwide in order to turn a profit.
Theaters typically keep half of ticket sales, which makes most movies’ break-even points roughly double their production budgets, but that number doesn’t include marketing costs.
There are quite a few likely reasons that the movie’s box office has so far fallen short of that $100 million marker. The first is the negative reviews, as the Cannes premiere took place a full month before its theatrical release, giving prospective viewers plenty of time to feel nervous about the prospect of committing three hours – and potentially an additional nine hours down the road, given the fact that this is only chapter one – to watching the project. Yellowstone audiences used to watching Costner’s Western material at home may also be waiting to view the movie on VOD.
Additionally, despite Yellowstone’s popularity, the show hasn’t necessarily boosted Costner’s status as a movie star since it premiered in 2018. Of the eight movies featuring Costner in a prominent role released since 2010, only two earned back more than twice their budget, both of which were released before Yellowstone. Plus, none earned more than $52.6 million, a number that falls considerably short of Horizon’s break-even point. This indicates that the marketplace may not have been receptive to such an ambitious project from the filmmaker. Below, see a breakdown of how Costner-led or co-led theatrical movies performed from 2010 to 2023:
Has Kevin Costner Earned His Money Back For Horizon?
Costner Partially Self-Financed The New Western
In addition to the movie’s financial prospects determining its worth as a replacement for Yellowstone, Costner has a large personal stake in the movie, having self-financed a large portion of its hefty budget. This is in keeping with a long-term pattern of behavior for the star, who has partially self-financed more than a dozen of his own projects, many of which have then flopped in theaters.
It is unclear if Kevin Costner’s Horizon gamble paid off, because while it has been confirmed that he spent at least $38 million of his own money on the production, the exact degree to which he is supporting the movie’s release is unknown. A recent Business Insider report suggests that, if Costner also had a hand in the marketing costs, the movie would have to gross $65 million at the domestic box office in order for Costner to recoup his investment. At the time of writing, this does not seem like a possibility.
Will Horizon 2, 3 & 4 Still Happen?
Horizon Is Meant To Be The First Chapter Of An Epic Saga
It remains to be seen if the critical and commercial reception of Chapter 1 will alter the plan for the upcoming Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 and beyond. Chapter 2 is already completed and dated to premiere in theaters on August 16. It seems probable that this release will continue as planned, though it could potentially be delayed to allow VOD audiences to find Chapter 1. Its release will likely not be compromised, given the fact that some ticketbuyers have already purchased a bundle that allows them to see both the first and second movies in theaters.
It seems possible that the ending could be truncated and included in Chapter 3…
However, the future of the saga seems like it could be in jeopardy. Chapter 3 is already in production, so it’s possible that it could be completed. However, the ultimate fate of Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 and its sequel could very well result in the outright cancellation of the planned Chapter 4. Should that be the case, it seems possible that the ending could be truncated and included in Chapter 3 in order to deliver a more or less complete story without the fourth chapter.
